The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened slightly lower in the night session and maintained a fluctuating trend. The spot market overall exhibited characteristics of "high prices, low activity" [SMM Tin Morning News].

SMM Tin Morning Brief on December 8, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2601) opened slightly lower in the night session and maintained a fluctuating trend, closing at 316,550 yuan/mt, down 0.47% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian presided over a regular press conference. According to reports, the CEO of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stated readiness to pay a 15% tax to the U.S. government to export MI308 chips to China. A Reuters correspondent inquired at the conference whether China is prepared to purchase these chips. In response, Lin Jian stated, "We have repeatedly stated our position on U.S. chips exported to China. We hope the U.S. side will take concrete actions to maintain the stability and smooth flow of global industrial and supply chains. For specific details, we recommend you consult the competent Chinese authorities." (2) Cui Dongshu from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) posted that in October 2025, the national used car market recorded a trading volume of 1.76 million units, down 2% MoM but up 2.7% YoY, with a transaction value of 111 billion yuan, down 0.8% YoY. From January to October 2025, the cumulative used car trading volume reached 16.49 million units, up 3.5% YoY, with a transaction value of 1,057.2 billion yuan, up 0.6% YoY. In recent years, the transfer ratio of used cars has fluctuated between 25% and 30%, reaching a current historical high of 33.1% in October 2025. In October 2025, the national new energy used car market recorded a trading volume of 148,000 units, down 7% MoM but up 42% YoY, with a new energy penetration rate of 11.2%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative new energy used car trading volume reached 1.284 million units, up 44% YoY.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply tightened overall in major producing areas like Yunnan. Most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in December. (2) Demand side: Orders decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream procurement remained cautious, with high prices notably suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although increased AI computing power and growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in traditional sector consumption.

Spot market: Downstream enterprises showed extremely limited acceptance of high-priced material. Traders generally reported almost no market transactions, with only sporadic just-in-time procurement orders, resulting in overall trading volume at a single-digit level. This "fear of high prices" sentiment characterized the market with "high prices and low activity."

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